Web 57DHYAFZZFLMW November 10 2026 Democrats Now Have a Path to Sidestep the Electoral College

Democrats Now Have a Path to Sidestep the Electoral College

Midterm victories have given states the opportunity to elevate

the national popular vote, but obstacles like legal challenges

would loom. Twice since Two Thousand with George W. Bush

and then in 2016 with Donald Trump Republicans have lost

the national popular vote but won the Electoral College.

Eliminating the Electoral College would require a constitutional

amendment, a highly unlikely prospect in a polarized nation.

But after Tuesday’s midterm elections, Democrats will soon have enough

power in statehouses across the country to try to circumvent it without

an amendment. Since Two Thousand Oh Seven, Eighteen Democratic trifecta

states and the District of Columbia have joined a legal framework that would

pledge their Electoral College votes to the nationwide popular vote winner,

rather than the winner in their state. The effect of the pact, if enacted and enforced,

would be the same as replacing the Electoral College with the popular vote.

The pledge would activate only if the states in the pact accounted for at least

Two Hundred Seventy electoral votes, the majority needed to win.

The states already in the pact represent Two Hundred Twenty Two electoral votes.

On Tuesday, Democrats in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

achieved a “trifecta,” winning control of both chambers in their state legislatures

and governor’s offices. If these states all joined the pact, they would represent

a total Sixty One more of 283 electoral votes. That would be enough for the agreement,

called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact , to go into effect.

In Two Thousand George W. Bush won Two Hundred Seventy One Electoral Votes

But lost the Popular Vote by Zero point Five Percent to Al Gore, but Bush became president.

In Two Thousand Sixteen Donald Trump won Three Hundred Four Electoral Votes

But lost the Popular Vote by Two point One Percent to Hillary Clinton, but Trump became president.

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been in effect that wouldn’t have happened.

Patrick Rosenstiel, who has been pushing for the compact as part of the National Popular Vote group since 2007, says it would be politically difficult for lawmakers to remove it once in place. He pointed to a Pew Research poll from Two Thousand Twenty Four in which Sixty Three percent of Americans said they would prefer a national popular vote. Lawmakers in all five states have introduced legislation to join the pact in recent years. Among them, Robert Wirch, a state senator in Wisconsin, said he had redrafted his bill. And Carrie Rheingans, a Democrat in the Michigan House of Representatives, recently said “the time is right.” There is some room to spare. Pennsylvania and Michigan would have to join, but just two of Wisconsin, Arizona or Nevada would also need to join to reach Two Hundred Seventy electoral votes.

The agreement would bring the idea of “one person, one vote” to the presidential contest nationwide.

Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would need to pass laws to join the effort,

and a trifecta does not ensure they will. In Two Thousand Nineteen, for example, the Nevada State Assembly and Senate voted to join the pact, but Governor Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, vetoed the bill, saying it could “diminish the role of smaller states like Nevada in national electoral contests.” 

One potential problem is that The pact could exist in Two Thousand Twenty Eight, then collapse

because of population change. Many Democratic states are either losing population or failing to grow and, as a result, are in line to lose Electoral College votes after the Two Thousand Thirty census.

According to one analysis , the current states in the pact and the five new trifecta states could have

a total of Two Hundred Seventy Five Electoral College votes in Two Thousand Thirty Two instead of the Two Hundred Eighty Three they currently have. That means the pact would need all five new trifecta states to stay afloat.  If it went into effect in Two Thousand Twenty Eight with just four of them, it would fall apart in the next election cycle. Contrast that possibility with the Electoral College, except for Maine and Nebraska, have a winner-take-all policy where the State looks only at the overall winner of the state-wide popular vote.  Maine and Nebraska appoint electors based on the winner of the popular vote

in Congressional districts and Two electors based on winner overall of state-wide popular vote.